So, this is where we are, huh? We've reached peak idiocracy, the point where you can gamble on whether some White House mouthpiece will utter the word "Thanksgiving" during a government shutdown. I saw the headline and thought, "This can't be real." But offcourse, it is.
Kalshi, PredictIt, Polymarket... they're all part of this disturbing trend: the "gamblification" of, well, everything. Politics, culture, even Taylor Swift's damn bridesmaids. Is nothing sacred anymore? Jonathan Cohen calls it the "canary in the coal mine," and I think he's spot on. We're not just passive observers anymore; we gotta monetize every single damn thing.
It's not enough to like Taylor Swift; you have to use your knowledge of Taylor Swift to try to make money off her streaming numbers. That's insane. What happened to just enjoying things?
And don't even get me started on the politics angle. You can bet on the nyc election, whether there's a government shutdown, even what some random politician will say. It's all just content now, fodder for the gambling machine.
Tarek Mansour, one of Kalshi's co-founders, says a prediction market is like the stock market, but for "yes" and "no" questions. Luana Lopes Lara chimes in that people can "monetize their knowledge." I'm sorry, but give me a break. This ain't investing; it's straight-up gambling, dressed up in fancy tech bro language.
Online sports betting is only legal in 31 states, but Kalshi is available in all 50. How does that work? Well, they claim it's not gambling; it's "investing." Sure, Jan.
The Biden administration tried to stop Kalshi from offering sports markets, but then Trump came back, and suddenly, it was all sunshine and roses. And get this: Donald Trump Jr. is now a "strategic advisor" to Kalshi and Polymarket. You can't make this stuff up.
When asked what kind of advice Trump Jr. gives them, Mansour dodges the question like a politician avoiding a direct answer. "It's really about go-to-market and expansion plans," he says. Right. Because that's totally believable.
And then there are the legal battles with states like Massachusetts, who rightly call Kalshi's sports markets "unlawful sports wagering." Kalshi, of course, is "confident" in their position. They always are. A recent article discusses how Are you a robot? and Kalshi are facing legal challenges over sports bets.
The owner of the New York Stock Exchange is investing $2 billion in Polymarket, and FanDuel is launching its own prediction market. This isn't going away. This is the future. A future where everything is gamified, monetized, and turned into a betting opportunity.
I gotta ask: What's next? Will we be betting on the weather? On whether my neighbor's dog will bark before 8 AM? Oh wait, we probably already can.
And the scariest part? People are actually making money doing this. Joel Holsinger, a 26-year-old live streaming influencer, makes about $3,000 a week trading on Kalshi. He lost $700 betting that Karoline Leavitt wouldn't say "Thanksgiving" during the shutdown. He lost seven hundred bucks and barely blinked.
